![]() The article will first go into the epidemiological-model to assess VRTX's existing products portfolio - essentially the currently approved products: Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta - and provide an DCF analysis to calculate their intrinsic value. Considering further potential upside from its pipeline developments, I believe VRTX to be a strong long position. ![]() I present here an epidemiological-based model approach to demonstrate that the currently approved CFTR modulators portfolio alone has an intrinsic value of $297 per share for VRTX. ![]() Therefore, a key question remains that given the level of product cannibalization created by Trikafta, can VRTX’s portfolio uphold the level of revenue generation required to support VRTX’s current share price? ![]() However, since Trikafta’s launch in 2019, despite its eye-dazzling revenue growth, sales for the other three drugs have slid significantly due to patients shifting away from them and using Trikafta. Collectively, the portfolio generated a total of $7.57B in revenue in 2021. Vertex Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ: VRTX) is a leading company in the space of cystic fibrosis (CF) with its current four-drug portfolio, namely Kalydeco (ivacaftor), Orkambi (lumacaftor/ivacaftor), Symdeko (tezacaftor/ivacaftor, and ivacaftor), and Trikafta (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor, and ivacaftor). Skodonnell/iStock via Getty Images Background/Thesis
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